Market Outlook

Microscopic Outlook (Day)

BTC looks like is going to consolidated further more, probably until the end of next week (16th of March 2021), if not more. Both oscillators (RSI and MACD with Fibonacci numbers configuration) show a negative trend reversal for the daily chart. And BTC price candles move below the 21 day moving average, which is bad. A correction down to 30k is also possible. 

Also the BTC Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart looks bad as we can see below:

Also the ETH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart looks bad as we can see below:

Note: The ETH NUPL is not very accurate, because it is not easy to separate smart contract addresses to user addresses. 

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric can also be calculated by subtracting realised cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap as described in this article. The NUPL BTC chart is close to euphoria and this can also be an indicator of a BTC price drop. 

Macroscopic Outlook (Months)

In the long run BTC looks good and promising, the short term turbulence, is going to affect the annual BTC ATH, unfortunately. The biggest selling point of BTC is the low reserve in the exchanges, we all are curious, what is going to happen when the exchanges are going to run out of OTC reserves.

Below we can see the BTC reserve reduction:

 

The BTC reserves for exchanges are not replenished fast enough and we will see a multiple short term outages of BTC within this year, creating multiple instances of short term buy pressure. The bad news is that the stock market is not fully decoupled from BTC or ETH and is going to affect the crypto price action.

Below we can see the ETH reserve reduction:

In a worse case scenario a short term buy pressure for ETH is certain, by the end of the year (especially when the new upgrades get implemented). The buy pressure, according to my opinion is going to be strong enough to help ETH hit very conservatively speaking 5k in dollars.