Market Outlook - 20/03/2021

Introduction

Bitcoin has had a very strong week coming out of its second major bull market correction. BTC has exceeded $60k, going for a new ATH after climbing consistently over the past week. On-chain metrics continue to show favourable conditions as the BTC supply remains restricted. But we are starting to see some warning signs for the bull run. Nothing imminent or that you should act on immediately, but some things we should pay attention to. The amount of whales holding Bitcoin and the Pi Cycle Top indicator are flashing interesting data.

Below we can see, in the day chart, that two oscillators show trend reversal (MACD and RSI show tend change): 

Below we can see, in the weekly chart, that only one oscillators trend reversal (RSI shows tend change): 

Below we can see, in the monthly chart, that only no oscillators show trend reversal: 

But as always, we should be fast to interpret data, but slow to act on it. When the bear market hits, it won’t be one gigantic drop to the bottom. Bitcoin will continue to fight its way back up between support and resistance giving you plenty of time to exit the market. Basically, no one ever picks the exact top so the important thing is to make sure you are always ready to take profits if the market does drop.

Below we can see the all time BTC NUPL chart:

Below we can see the 2 week BTC NUPL chart:

Note: Nothing to worry about BTC yet.

Below we can see the 2 week ETH NUPL chart:

Note: Nothing to worry about ETH yet.

Below we can see the all time BTC for LTH NUPL chart:

Note: Long Term Holder NUPL (LTH-NUPL) is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss that takes into account only UTXOs with a lifespan of at least 155 days and serves as an indicator to assess the behaviour of long term investors. I think that the chart above shows that we should be little worried about the tendency of the BTC movements.

Below we can see the all time BTC for STH NUPL chart:

BTC Net Transfer Volume from/to Exchanges - All Exchanges:

Note:  The difference of in volume flowing into exchanges and out of exchanges, i.e. the net flow of coins into/out of exchanges. Note that exchange metrics are based on our labeled data of exchange addresses that we constantly keep updating, as well as data science techniques and statistical information that changes over time. Therefore these metrics are mutable – the data is stable, but especially most recent data points are subject to slight fluctuations as time progresses. I think that for the immediate future all is good based on the net-flow.

BTC Net Transfer Volume from/to Exchanges 7 day - All Exchanges:

The BTC reserve remains low, so good news:

The ETH reserve remains steadily low, so good news:

Conclusion

In the long run we are going to be millionaires, in the short run we have to be careful. The day chart of BTC has already to oscillators (the RSI and MACD), showing a downward trend reversal. Due to the fact that the this is a day chart, adds significance to the trend oscillators (it means, that it looks like a sign stronger than the hourly charts). Nonetheless in the monthly chart, there is no sign of trend reversal yet.