Introduction
The Bitcoin market
has seen a relatively quiet week, both in price action, and in demand
for on-chain transactions and value settlement. Prices have traded
within a narrow range between a high of $39K, and down to a weekly
low of $34K. Meanwhile, on-chain
activity in active users, settled volume and transaction fees, across
both the Bitcoin and Ethereum protocols, have fallen back to levels
observed in 2020 and early 2021. Mempool congestion has largely cleared
as the market remains uncertain around the bullish or bearish bias of
the current market structure.
The On-Chain Data (Mempool)
The time has come to look into the block chain data to be able to end up with our conclusions. An important element of crypto is the Mempool. The Mempool tends to become very active during Bull Market periods and usually cools down when the Bear prevail. The Mempool is a “waiting area” for Bitcoin transactions that each full
node maintains for itself. After a transaction is verified by a node, it
waits inside the Mempool until it’s picked up by a Bitcoin miner and
inserted into a block [1].
Below we can see the 1m BTC Mempool transactions [1]:
Below we can see the 6m BTC Mempool transactions [1]:
Below we can see the 6m ETH Mempool transactions [2]:
Below we can see the 2w ETH Mempool transactions [2]:
RETAIL, HIGH NET WORTH PEOPLE AND WHALES MOVE TO DIFFERENT TYPE OF ASSETS SUCH AS ETF ETC.
The On-Chain Data (Hash Rate)
Another interesting indicator to look into, would be the Bitcoin hash rate. Bitcoin hash rate (also hashrate) is the computer power of the Bitcoin
network. It is the measurable and quantifiable speed at which the
Bitcoin network processes data when adding new transactions to the
shared ledger [3]. Again during Bull market the hashrate is increasing and during Bear markets the hashrate is reduced.
Below we can see the hashrate charts:
Note: Above we can see how the hashrate is related to the BTC price.
Below we can see the aSOPR against the BTC price and RSI/MACD:
Note: It looks like we hot rock bottom, as far as I am concerned.
The Conclusion
My IMO on the current situation is that the BTC is going to move between 35 to 42K for 2 to 6 months.
Below we can see the BTC dominance chart:
Note: There is a support line at 38. Which I think it will hold for now. Both RSI and MACD show a down trend, show time to accumulate more BTC.
Below we can see the BTC price against the NUPL chart:
Note: Still looks healthy.
References:
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