Market Outlook - 27/05/2021

 Introduction 

In this blog post we will see what is happening on the BTC charts and end up with some conclusions about further price action. It seems that BTC is going to consolidate for the next couple of weeks. There is an accumulation zone created by the whales between 35k and 42k. Dont forget that Elon bought at 35k and therefore it is not going to go below that (whales never lose money). 

Elon's tweets that were partially responsible for the dump range from claims of negative externalities from energy consumption,  to claims that 10x faster and larger blocks on Dogecoin are a viable alternative. Unfortunately, this has lead to widespread confusion in markets, although for many Bitcoin HODLers, this is just another day in the office.

Below we can see the percentage in entities in profit from March 2020:

Note: The states say it all.

BTC Microscopic Outlook

Below we can see the 4hr BTC chart:

Note:  ABove we can see that BTC is rejecting mini head and shoulder reversal pattern. 

Below we can see the same chart with some resistance and support lines:

Note: Above we can see that there is a drop on the volume, which can be an indecator that BTC is going to continue consolidating. Also in a MACD we get a potential reversal, but in RSI is not clear.

Below we can see the 1d BTC chart:

Note: Above we can see that on the daily chart we are still bearish.

Below we can see the 1d BTC chart:

Note: We can see now that BTC a moving range of 12% (meaning consolidating in -+12% range, were we can trade). Also is below the 21 EMA , which seems to act as some king of strong resistance. If BTC breaks the 21 EMA thet we would expect a significant upward movement. 

BTC Macroscopic Outlook

Below we can see that the BTC NUPL is reset for good and that the BTC price and reserve is also droping together, which make it easy to understand that the price drop was purely manipulated.

Below we can see the NUPL from Glassnode:

Note: As we can see there has been a very good reset in the BTC NUPL chart. What does that mean is that the BTC bull run broke into 2x mini Bull runs and a mini Bear market, which will suppress the annual global top.

Below we can see the aSOPR from Glassnode:

Note: Above we can see that 35k might actually be the global (annual) bottom. We can also see from the chart that this deep could not be predicted by the aSOPR at all (aSOPR usually gives you a notification from 7 to 2 days earlier). BTC DIP WAS COMPLETELY UNNATURAL, THE BTC FUNDAMENTALS DID NOT CHANGE AT ALL AND THE DUMP IS NOT JUSTIFIED. 

Below we can see the BTC reserves:

Note: Again the macros did not change at all.

Below we can see the BTC netflow:

Note: Above we can see that the inflow increased dramatically to push the price lower.

Conclusion

We hit the bottom:

Note: We can see her the volume level is similar.

References:

• insights glassnode [1]