Market Outlook - 25/07/2021

 Introduction

In this blog post we are going to talk again about Bitcoin microscopic and macroscopic charts. As the probability for high Bitcoin market volatility increases, we will analyse the current market situation using on-chain metrics and charts. Things started to look better already, but remember the trend is your friend and trade do not date.

I would also like to inform you that we started our new channel, so please feel free to pay us a visit:

Microscopic Outlook

As we can see in the chart below the Bitcoin dominance is increasing and retesting previous resitance line. The most inetersting patterns can be seen by the RSI trend reversal pattern. It looks like smart money are entering the market.

 

 

Note: Even though the volume remains low, we can clearly see that Bitcoin is slowly reclaiming dominance.

 

Below we can see the 3m Bitcoin mempool chart:

 

 

Note: Volatility is not here there compared to May, but we can see spikes. So Bitcoin constellation is still on the play.

 

On-chain activity remains extremely muted with mempools clearing, and transaction volumes continuing to fall. As the mempool empties, the average block size has fallen by 15% to 20%, down to 1.103M bytes. [1]

 

 

Note:  This indicates that demand for Bitcoin block-space and on-chain settlement is low, mined blocks are not full, and the utilization of the network is relatively low.

 

Below we can see the addresses holding more than 10K of BTC (two week chart):

 

Note: This chart information combined with the low volatility shows that the Bitcoin price is going to consolidate, for at least one more week. This chart also shows us that because most of the smart money buys through OTC, and because the addresses holding more than 10k increases and then drops, market manipulators want to slowly increase the Bitcoin price. This is also called the accumulation phase.

Below we can see the Bitcoin annual exchange reserves:

 

Note: In this chart we can see something very interesting. The Bitcoin exchange reserves is increased.

Below we can see the exchange net flows of BTC (two week chart):

 

Note: This charts confirms previous conclusion, which are a) BTC hit bottom, b) accumulation started. We can see the pattern designates small increments of the smart money in the BTC cap.

Macroscopic Outlook

 

We do not have nuch to say about the Bitcoin macros. The most important news about Bitcoin is that high net-worth individuals are buying in:

 

Cathy Woods bought Bitcoin recently (this verifies accumulation started):

 

Rothchilds bought Bitcoin recently (this verifies accumulation started):

 

Bitcoin ETF recently came up (this verifies accumulation started):

Conclusion

 

The following conclusions are confirmed:

• Net Entity growth remains positive
• Exchanges have seen net outflows after an extended period of inflows since mid-May.
• Smart Money started pouring in
• It looks like accumulation started.
  

References:

 

• insights.glassnode.com [1]

Market Outlook - 13/06/2021 (Bitcoin Situation)

Introduction

 

The Bitcoin market has seen a relatively quiet week, both in price action, and in demand for on-chain transactions and value settlement. Prices have traded within a narrow range between a high of $39K, and down to a weekly low of $34K. Meanwhile, on-chain activity in active users, settled volume and transaction fees, across both the Bitcoin and Ethereum protocols, have fallen back to levels observed in 2020 and early 2021. Mempool congestion has largely cleared as the market remains uncertain around the bullish or bearish bias of the current market structure.

 

 

The On-Chain Data (Mempool)

 

The time has come to look into  the block chain data to be able to end up with our conclusions. An important element of crypto is the Mempool. The Mempool tends to become very active during Bull Market periods and usually cools down when the Bear prevail. The Mempool is a “waiting area” for Bitcoin transactions that each full node maintains for itself. After a transaction is verified by a node, it waits inside the Mempool until it’s picked up by a Bitcoin miner and inserted into a block [1].

 

Below we can see the 1m BTC Mempool transactions [1]:

 

 

Below we can see the 6m BTC Mempool transactions [1]:  

Below we can see the 6m ETH Mempool transactions [2]: 

 

Below we can see the 2w ETH Mempool transactions [2]: 

 

 

 

RETAIL, HIGH NET WORTH PEOPLE AND WHALES MOVE TO DIFFERENT TYPE OF ASSETS SUCH AS ETF ETC.  

 

The On-Chain Data (Hash Rate)

Another interesting indicator to look into, would be the Bitcoin hash rate. Bitcoin hash rate (also hashrate) is the computer power of the Bitcoin network. It is the measurable and quantifiable speed at which the Bitcoin network processes data when adding new transactions to the shared ledger [3]. Again during Bull market the hashrate is increasing and during Bear markets the hashrate is reduced.

Below we can see the hashrate charts:

Note: Above we can see how the hashrate is related to the BTC price.

Below we can see the aSOPR against the BTC price and RSI/MACD:

 

 Note: It looks like we hot rock bottom, as far as I am concerned.

 

The Conclusion

My IMO on the current situation is that the BTC is going to move between 35 to 42K for 2 to 6 months.

 

Below we can see the BTC dominance chart:

 

Note: There is a support line at 38. Which I think it will hold for now. Both RSI and MACD show a down trend, show time to accumulate more BTC.

 

Below we can see the BTC price against the NUPL chart:

 

 

Note: Still looks healthy.
 

 

References:

• 99bitcoins.com [1] 
• jochen-hoenicke.de [2] 
• medium.com [3] 

 

 

 

The Narratives & the Atlcoin Market

Introduction  

The Altcoin market works with narratives. But what is a narrative and why this is important? Well below we can see the definition of narrative:

Definition of narrative

• something that is narrated : STORY, ACCOUNT
• the representation in art of an event or story

In the context of cryptocurrency a narrative is a theme used to describe the functionality the currency is adding, developing.

Definition of narrative in the context of cryptocurrency

• the technological them used to describe the problem that the currency is used to solve 

Matic's is layer two Ethereum solution using side chain for performance reasons

The Market & The Narratives

Narrative is important because it help the retail and institutional investors to decide if the narrative of a currency is going to pick up in the near future e.g. the narrative describes a problem that requires solution. If the fundamentals are good and the narrative is popular then bingo.

Below we can see a schematic representation: 

The narratives that came up in this bull market are the following:

Below we can see the definitions on some of the narratives: 

Optimistic Rollups 

Optimistic Rollups (ORs) are one type of layer 2 constructions that do not run on Ethereum's base layer but on top of it. This enables running smart contracts at scale while still being secured by Ethereum. These constructions resemble Plasma, but trade the almost infinite scalability of Plasma to run an EVM compatible Virtual Machine called OVM (Optimistic Virtual Machine) which enables ORs to run anything Ethereum can.

Plasma

Plasma is a layer-2 scaling solution that was originally proposed by Joseph Poon and Vitalik Buterin in their paper Plasma: Scalable Autonomous Smart Contracts. It is a framework for building scalable applications.

ZK-Rollups

ZK-Rollups are one of the options being developed for layer 2 construction that increases scalability through mass transfer processing rolled into a single transaction.  

NFTs

An NFT is a digital asset that represents real-world objects like art, music, in-game items and videos. They are bought and sold online, frequently with cryptocurrency, and they are generally encoded with the same underlying software as many cryptos.

DEX

A decentralised exchange (or DEX) is a peer-to-peer marketplace where transactions occur directly between crypto traders. DEXs fulfill one of crypto’s core possibilities: fostering financial transactions that aren’t officiated by banks, brokers, or any other intermediary. Many popular DEXs, like Uniswap and Sushiwap, run on the Ethereum blockchain.

As the market started evolving we started seeing combinations of the narratives:

Popular narratives

Popular narratives are the narratives that solve a problem e.g. Ethereum is a network with high fess and scalability issues and therefore the popular narratives are the ones that help us drop the fees and increase the Ethereum network.

Narratives of the future 

The narratives of the future are the narratives that emerge in order to solve new problems or optimise the solutions that currently exist even more. A few examples can be seen below: 

How can you profit?

Simply find old or new narratives with good fundamentals and start buying.......

SOMETHING SMELL LIKE CLEAN ENERGY...... 

References:

•  docs.ethhub.io [1]

Market Outlook - 04/06/2021 (Bitcoin Situation)

Introduction 

This post hopefully is going to remove some of your FUD and help you understand what is going on in the market right now. I am going to explain some basic principles of the market and dive into my view backed with FACTS and it will all make sense. A lot of YouTube and Twitter influencers keep on saying that BTC is dropping because Elon is posting his ridiculous twitter posts WRONG, this might help the drop of BTC but is not the main reason. 

The Basics    

Market prices are affected by various facts. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand (small supply usually creates demand and vise versa). In crypto we have more visibility, on what is happening,  due to the on chain data. Stock and crypto prices are determined in the marketplace, where seller supply meets buyer demand. 

Below we can see how FUD and FOMO are triggered:

FUD and FOMO are triggered by information. Information that is 90% manipulated and controlled by the Whales. 

That is correct Whales have:

• Resources
• More capital
• Control of the media 

Retail investors control nothing, ONLY THEIR EMOTIONS TO NOT BUY AND HOLD OR TO SELL THE RIGHT TIME. 

The Facts

What are the facts, the facts are that whales do not care about your financial freedom, but they care for making profit.

Below we can see the 7 day number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 0.01 (this is the retail):

Note: As we can see this is dropping relatively slow.

Below we can see the 7 day number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 0.1 (this is still the retail):

Note: As we can see again this is dropping relatively fast.

Below we can see the 7 day number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 1 (this is still the retail):

Note: As we can see again again this is dropping relatively fast (same curve as above).

Below we can see the 7 day number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 10 (this is not retail):

Note: As we can see curve is changing as the the number of addresses is fluctuating, and is not a straight line dropping.  

Below we can see the 7 day number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 100 (this is not, obviously retail):

Note: As we can see the trend is changing slowly.

Below we can see the 7 day number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 1k (this is big whales):

Note: As we can see here is were the manipulation takes place. The wales sell and buy BTC in order to maintain the price close to 35k.

Below we can see a schematic representation of the address movement:

Note: When the addresses move up and down BTC will consolidate. Whales are currently on vacation or waiting for the next accumulation cycle.

What is OTC

Over-the-counter (OTC) refers to the process of how securities and Bitcoin are traded via a broker-dealer network as opposed to on a centralised exchange. Over-the-counter trading can involve equities, debt instruments, and derivatives, which are financial contracts that derive their value from an underlying asset such as a commodity.

In simple words OTC does not affect the BTC price. Below we can see the OTC/CEX buy history ration for a whale:

<<< Whales accumulate only through OTC and Retail investors only through CEXs.>>>

Accumulation Phase

When did them accumulation started? 8th of Feb see below:

Note: We can see above that the addresses picked on 8th if Feb and we reached ATH on 22nd of Feb. And the addresses started droping gradually, until now. 

This means that when a second accumulation starts the BTC price will start increasing again. When accumulations start and stop?? Well it depends on how BTC is used. Recently companies started including BTC in their balance sheets for cash replacement. This means that important company dates related to a company profitability are important for the BTC accumulation start and stop dates.

The following events will help us assess the start of the new accumulation:

• Company earnings announcements
• Can be annual or every 4 months
• Company dividend announcements
• Can be annual or every 4 months
• Company tax returns (near the end of the year)

An earnings announcement is an official public statement of a company's profitability for a specific period, typically a quarter or a year. An earnings announcement occurs on a specific date during earnings season and is preceded by earnings estimates issued by equity analysts. If a company has been profitable leading up to the announcement, its share price will usually increase up to and slightly after the information is released. Because earnings announcements can have such a prominent effect on the market, they are often considered when predicting the next day's open [1].

Below we can see the TESLA earning announcements:

Note: We can see that TESLA earning announcement were reported on Q21 aka April 2021 and TESLA bought at 35K BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENTS. TESLA STOCKS WERE NOT AFFECTED BY THE BTC DROP. BTC LOST NO MONEY (ON PAPER FOR BUYING BTC). TESLA BOUGHT BTC IN THE CURRENT PRICE AND THE PRICE DID NOT DROP FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME BELOW 35K. ON Q2 2021 TESLA MIGHT SO PROFITS FROM OTHER RESOURCES/INCOMES. IT DOES NOT MEAN BTC WILL INCREASE ON Q3 FOR TESLA COMPANY, BUT THE COMPANY WILL LOOK GOOD IF BTC PRICE IS CLOSE TO 4OK BY END OF Q2 2021.

Below we can see when Elon started FUDing about BTC:

Below we can see when TESLA bought and what happened afterwards:

I leave the conclusions to you guys......

BTC market is increasing and therefore, it gets harder to manipulate. Also the BTC returns will minimise as time is passing by....................

References:

•  investopedia.com [1]
• Tesla Info [2]

Market Outlook - 27/05/2021

 Introduction 

In this blog post we will see what is happening on the BTC charts and end up with some conclusions about further price action. It seems that BTC is going to consolidate for the next couple of weeks. There is an accumulation zone created by the whales between 35k and 42k. Dont forget that Elon bought at 35k and therefore it is not going to go below that (whales never lose money). 

Elon's tweets that were partially responsible for the dump range from claims of negative externalities from energy consumption,  to claims that 10x faster and larger blocks on Dogecoin are a viable alternative. Unfortunately, this has lead to widespread confusion in markets, although for many Bitcoin HODLers, this is just another day in the office.

Below we can see the percentage in entities in profit from March 2020:

Note: The states say it all.

BTC Microscopic Outlook

Below we can see the 4hr BTC chart:

Note:  ABove we can see that BTC is rejecting mini head and shoulder reversal pattern. 

Below we can see the same chart with some resistance and support lines:

Note: Above we can see that there is a drop on the volume, which can be an indecator that BTC is going to continue consolidating. Also in a MACD we get a potential reversal, but in RSI is not clear.

Below we can see the 1d BTC chart:

Note: Above we can see that on the daily chart we are still bearish.

Below we can see the 1d BTC chart:

Note: We can see now that BTC a moving range of 12% (meaning consolidating in -+12% range, were we can trade). Also is below the 21 EMA , which seems to act as some king of strong resistance. If BTC breaks the 21 EMA thet we would expect a significant upward movement. 

BTC Macroscopic Outlook

Below we can see that the BTC NUPL is reset for good and that the BTC price and reserve is also droping together, which make it easy to understand that the price drop was purely manipulated.

Below we can see the NUPL from Glassnode:

Note: As we can see there has been a very good reset in the BTC NUPL chart. What does that mean is that the BTC bull run broke into 2x mini Bull runs and a mini Bear market, which will suppress the annual global top.

Below we can see the aSOPR from Glassnode:

Note: Above we can see that 35k might actually be the global (annual) bottom. We can also see from the chart that this deep could not be predicted by the aSOPR at all (aSOPR usually gives you a notification from 7 to 2 days earlier). BTC DIP WAS COMPLETELY UNNATURAL, THE BTC FUNDAMENTALS DID NOT CHANGE AT ALL AND THE DUMP IS NOT JUSTIFIED. 

Below we can see the BTC reserves:

Note: Again the macros did not change at all.

Below we can see the BTC netflow:

Note: Above we can see that the inflow increased dramatically to push the price lower.

Conclusion

We hit the bottom:

Note: We can see her the volume level is similar.

References:

• insights glassnode [1]
  

The Nftify Token

Introduction 

The NFTify team following the popular narrative on NFTs created NFTify. This is an interesting token  NFTify allows businesses to create their own NFT store without coding; helps NFT authors issue NFT easily and detect fake/similar content for copyright protection purposes; provides NFT collectors with a platform to transact at a much lower cost.

 

NFTify’s main features:

• Based on Substrate
• Copy write protection
• Permission less shop creation
• Cross Chain
• Zero Coding
• Low Fees  
  

What attracted me to NFTifyis that:

• It does not require developers to join the chain, and therefore increases adaptation easy
  
• Provides copy write protection, and therefore protects the users from copy theft
• It is chain is permissiveness and has interoperability 
  

The use case of the project is solid, if you ask me. But do your own research before continue reading, by checking out the following links:

• Nftify official twitter
• Nftify official telegram 
• news.nftify.network
• NFTify facebook  
• Nftify Whitepaper
• Nftify youtube 
  

Please feel free to do your own research, using the link above.

Social Presence 

The has a good social presence with multiple AMA from the team members:

• Twitter 1,441 Followers
• Telegram 5442 members, 403 online
• Facebook 24 people follow  
• Youtube resources 1,934 views (of the most popular video)
  

In the social media the team is organizing frequent AMA and make sure they answer all the users questions. There is not Linkedin profile for the company, as it is a bit too early stage of the project.

 

Partners

Below we can see the Nftify partners:

 

 Note: Above we can see that there are some really interesting partners.

Platform

The whitepaper provided is more of a lightpaper, as it explains some rather basic concepts for the experienced crypto investor. Although again the narratives are very popular for the current bull market 

 

This is how the NFTiFY platform looks like:

 

Note:The platform is using AI to for copy write protection and makes use of the polkadot parachain. The narrative and the technology is good.

Roadmap

 The roadmap looks decent and reasonable. The roadmap of the project can be seen below:

 

Tokenomics 

Below we can see some of the tokenomics (token allocation) for the project: 

 

Below we can see some of the tokenomics (token release) for the project: 

 

References:

• nftify.network [1]

Market Outlook - 21/04/2021

 Introduction 

In this blog post we are going to analysis ETH short term (grab the money and run), and what trades to open on ETH [1]. ETH reached all time high (ATH) at 2500 something, this price could be predicted with fb entrancement.

 

See below:

 

Note: This chart shows the Fibonacci retrenchment hitting the psychological resistance close to  2500 dollars. ETH also has a significant de-coupling after January 2021 (about 9%), due to the fees and some other issues. It seems that ETH is going to retest very soon the 2500 dollar resistance pretty soon.

ETH TA

Below we can see that ETH formed a reverse double bottom:

Note: Set your limit sell order to 2300 something, as 2500 is a psychological resistance. A 10x on 2370 is safe enough. ETH seems to create a pennant after the 2279 dollar resistance. Also the latest 4hr resistance can act as a support.

ETH every time it is testing the EMA ribbon bonces back up: 

Note: ETH today is moving above the EMA ribbon and has successfully completed a ribbon bonce. 

UPDATE (22/04/2021)

We can see now that on the 1hr chart ETH created a channel:

And on 1day chart the ETH FBR is targeting the 4159dollars: 

References:

• www.newsbtc.com  [1]