Sunday, 28 March 2021

Market Outlook 28/03/2020

 Introduction

This article is going to focus only on TA and on-chain data to explain when and how much money to move to Altcoins. Should we be moving to Altcoins? Yes Am I going to move to Altcoins? Yes Is this an Altcoin season? Yes, Are you an Altcoin fan? Yes. “Altcoin season,” or “alt season,” is a meme for the idea that bitcoin returns move cyclically against other crypto assets, or “altcoins,” as in, alternatives to bitcoin. The notion is that investors take their bitcoin profits and play the altcoin casino with house money, and vice versa [2]. 

Last week, Grayscale Investments announced a slew of new trusts, each focused on smaller-cap “altcoin.” (CoinDesk and Grayscale are both owned by Digital Currency Group.) A dozen other assets are also ahead of bitcoin, led by Web 3.0 assets Cardano (ADA, -0.31%) and algorand (ALGO, +4.32%) and DeFi asset 0x (ZRX, +3.52%) [2]. 

Before you continue reading this article, please also see the following video:



Why should we move to Altcoins? But of course for diversification? Nooooooooo. Diversification is the most stupid thing someone can say when referring to cryptocurrency portfolio diversification, for more information see my post Data-Driven Approach To Cryptocurrency Speculation The Ultimate Methodology. Portfolio diversification makes sense only when used with stocks and commodities. Why? Because with crypto we have access to on chain data, and can run multiple correlations to see what is going on. The only reason we should be should be diversifying is Black Swan events e.g. 3rd world war happens, the Altcoin company you invest gets hacked etc.


Below we can see as sample correlation for the period from 2021-02-07 to 2017-17-08:


Note: Above we can see how coins correlate with each other. Also good diversification  is recommended to take place in two different phases when the BTC dominance is low we move to Altcoins that correlate low with BTC and when BTC dominance is high we move to Altcoins that have high correlation with BTC.        

The Altcoin Index

Blockchaincenter is a web site that records who the rest of the coins perform compared to BTC and below we can see the stats.



Below we can see the graph with the performance:



Note: We can see that LUNA, CAKE and ENJ are doing very well. 


Below we can see a different, visualization, that compares BTC performance with the rest of the coins:



Note: Notice that ETH is not doing that well. Maybe is time to get rid off some.

The graph below demonstrates a nice way to record the dominance of the BTC Mkt cap:



Note: See how the seasons alternative based on BTC market dominance.  

Below we can see the Altcoin index from the same source:



Note: This is the Bitcoin, Altcoin index Season.


The Altcoin TA Analysis

Below we can see the total crypto market cap:



Note: The total crypto market cap is not at 1.9T and the monthly chart looks very bullish.

Below we can see the total altcoin market cap:



Note: Above we the Altcon market cap from EXCAVO.

The BTC TA Analysis

Below we can see the 4hr chart of BTC, with MAs showing support:




Below we can see the 4hr chart of BTC with oscillators showing a reversal:



Conclusion

Right now is a good time to enter the Altcoin market, as we are in the start of the 2nd Bull cycle.


References:



Friday, 26 March 2021

Market Outlook - 26/03/2021

 Introduction 

Hello fellow fluffy blockchainers, on March 25 (yesterday), with the record-breaking $6.1 billion options expiring, Biitcoin experienced a sell-off and dropped the price below $50,500. There's a lot of speculation happening around the new contracts set to expire on April 30, with investors placing their bets on a strike price of $80k [1]. With regards to the current Bitcoin cycle, not much has structurally changed since our last update, and the concepts covered still hold true. We’ll send out an update once we think we have reached the next stage.

See below we can see information from Glassnode on Futures Open interest: 


Note: The diagram above shows the mean liquidated volume (USD Value) from short positions in futures contracts. 

In layman's terms the big nasty whales got f*k up (this is a family blog, and we are not swearing). More specifically, what we see in the diagram above is that the Whales used other people money to short Bitcoin (sell, in order to drop the price,  and buy later on cheaper).  But the big bad wolf (Elon Musk) and other institutions did their magic and reversed the situation [2].

More specifically Elon twitted  the following info and saved us (or at least helped):



Yes Elon you did it again!!




Below we can see from Cryptometer the liquidations that took place the last 24hrs:



Current Landscape


Bitcoin price is currently sitting at $53 plus and investors seem to be certain about its next potential move. By analyzing the profitability of traders near the current price of BTC, we can understand the circumstances and price ranges expected to act as a stronger support and resistance now.

See below we can see information from Glassnode NUPL: 


Note: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. For more information see this article. It seems we are still safe! 

Macro Outlook


But despite the recent downward price action, on-chain indicators are looking as strong as before. As can be seen in the graph below, the number of BTC hodlers has increased by over 2.84 million within the last twelve months.

See below we can see information from Glassnode on Realized HODL Ratio: 

Note: The Realized HODL Ratio is a market indicator that uses a ratio of the Realized Cap HODL Waves. In particular, the RHODL Ratio takes the ratio between the 1 week and the 1-2 years RCap HODL bands. In addition, it accounts for increased supply by weighting the ratio by the total market age. A high ratio is an indication of an overheated market and can be used to time cycle tops.  

Hodlers indicator has continuously shown an almost linear growth every month, despite Bitcon recent price action, it is now at about 21.55m addresses, an All-Time-High for this metric, and it represents 57.96% of the total BTC holders.

See below we can see information from Glassnode on Realized Cap HODL Waves: 


Note: HODL Waves weighted by Realized Price.  

Conclusion 


Until 2020, Bitcoin’s performance was largely uncoupled from the performance of global financial markets in general. But as institutional money has started to pile into the crypto space, we can no longer disregard the narrative and events driving global financial market’s. An important question to take into consideration when looking at the future performance of the stock market and Bitcoin, is what will happen to inflation [3]. With this excess printing, Bitcoin is already challenging gold as the investor’s choice for an ideal inflation hedge. Net fund flows in the largest gold ETF for example have been negative, with gold outflows totaling -6.8bn USD. Meanwhile in 2020, in Greyscale’s BTC trust alone, inflows outpaced the amount of newly mined Bitcoins in Q4 by 200%.



References:

Tuesday, 23 March 2021

Market Outlook - 23/03/2021

Introduction 

The Bitcoin market has continued to consolidate between $53k and $61.5k as announcements of further Bitcoin adoption come out from traditional finance giants Morgan Stanley and Visa. Morgan Stanley has launched access to three bitcoin investment vehicles, available their for high net worth clients and investment firms. Visa has also followed the Mastercard lead in the path to enabling bitcoin purchases via the Visa network [1]. Despite the good BTC news we see that, the price is retesting significant support lines.

Below we can see the 4 hourly chart:


We can clearly see that the BTC price line is retesting again the 144 day Moving Average, that tend to act as a strong support line.  

Below we can see the same 4 hourly chart oscillators (RSI and MACD) signaling a reversal:


Although the volume does not look to support a trend reversal, to be honest, it is still worrying that BTC keeps challenging strong support lines.

Another interesting chart is that of the tradinglight book order. Below we can see the multiple sell walls from the Binance order book:


Of course these walls exist there probably to sake the weak hands and, it might be nothing more than a mirage from the nasty whales.



 

References:

Sunday, 21 March 2021

DeFi The Ultimate Guide

 Introduction 

First of all we should clarify what is DeFi and why this is important.  DeFi is a general term given to decentralised financial services such as decentralised exchanges (DEXs) , decentralised money markets, and decentralised insurance companies, etc. It aims to replace centralised financial services, such as centralised exchanges (CEXs) with autonomous organisations that allow everyone to participate. This is important because it can help us make profits. 

 Yes but what is DeFi


DeFi is based on a software running on top of a Blockchain, it is as simple as that, but not exactly. DeFi is a financial ecosystem, running in a Blockchain (that supports sophisticate functionality, such as Ethereum blockchain), yes, but not exactly. When a DeFi financial ecosystem runs on top of a  Blockchain, then is characterised as a layer 2 solution, but a DeFi can be a Blockchain it self.

A DeFi ecosystem is visible to the rest of the world, either through DApps or directly (e.g. a user can interact with the smart contract directly or through DApps). A DApp is just like any other software application you use. It could be a website or an app on your phone. What makes a Dapp different than a traditional app is that it's built on a decentralised Blockhain, such as Ethereum.

Below we cans see some Blockchain explorers:


Yes but why DeFi


DeFi or open finance or decentralised finance, refers to the paradigm shift from today’s closed financial system towards an open financial economy based on open protocols that are interoperable, programmable, and composable [1]. 
As the crypto ecosystem expand, the term Open Finance more accurately describes the intended destination, because all modern Blockchains are creating new on-chain economies that integrate with current financial systems. Open finance is not about creating a new system from scratch, it’s about democratising the existing system and making it more equitable using open protocols and transparent data [1].

Below we can see the properties if a DeFi system:
  • Interoperable - Current financial system is comprised of walled gardens with limited access  
  • Programmable - Offers financial instruments and assets that are more customisable
  • Composable - Implement the concept that something can be selected and assembled in combinations
A DeFi ecosystem can offer you the following generic services, by simply using your crypto asset wallet:
  • Borrowing assets 
  • Lending assets
  • Accounts with interest rate
In the following sections we will analyse exactly what a DeFi ecosystem can offer you and how to access it.  

DeFi vs. Centralised Finance

To gain a better understanding of the impact DeFi can have on the economic landscape, it’s critical to outline how it improves upon our current centralised infrastructure, as well as cover the areas in which it falls short [2]. DeFi has the following four properties that Centralised Finance (CeFi) does not have a) Autonomy, b) Accessibility, c) Tradability and d) Transparency [2].

More specifically [2]:
  • Autonomy – In DeFi There is no centralised authority, such as a bank, with the ability to freeze your account, seize your assets, or block your transactions.
  • Accessibility-  You only need Internet to access DeFi.
  • Tradability - DeFi ecosystems are used to trade synthetic tokens.
  • Transparency - DeFi ecosystems run on Blockchains and therefore the code is immutable. DeFi data is publicly available, enabling you to keep service providers honest. For instance, you can easily check the reserves of a DeFi bank, shop around for accurate loan rates, or even track the transactions of public figures.
A DeFi snapshot can be seen through DeFi Pulse [3]:
 

Note: DeFi Pulse is a Website tracking the whole Market cap of the ecosystem. More specifically DeFi Pulse is a site where you can find the latest analytics and rankings of DeFi protocols. It tracks the total value locked into the smart contracts of popular DeFi applications and protocols. Additionally, it curates The DeFi List, a collection of resources in DeFi, and DeFi Pulse Farmer, a newsletter covering the latest news and opportunities in DeFi.


DeFi Now

DeFi and the greater crypto ecosystem are experiencing an explosion in 2020. Total Value Locked (TVL) has grown more than 10x since March, new projects with novel distribution models and incentive mechanisms are launched week after week. The yield farming craze has stress-tested all the major DeFi protocols in the past four months, and the industry as a whole is going through a phase of extraordinary growth [3].

DeFi Security Risks

We have identified the following categories of risks that you should be aware of when thinking about your DeFi investments [4]:
  • Hacks - The code might get hacked
  • Governance - The team managing the DeFi ecosystem, makes a mistake
  • Losing control of your assets - Losing the private key of your wallet
  • Scams - The whole DeFi ecosystem is a scam
But lucky you, there are ways to minimise the risk by following the steps below:
  • Before allocating you assets in the DeFi ecosystem review the team, through social media - 
    • Make sure the team is not anonymous
    • Make sure the project has a significant social media footprint
    • Do your own research in the project
  • Check the source code of the DeFi ecosystem -
    • Make sure the code is open source and available is in github
    • Make sure you read the code, before investing
    • Make sure that a 3rd independent party did a security source code review
    • Make sure you understand what the code does
  • Understand the tokenomics -
    • Run calculations on the offered token inflation
    • Research the circulating and max supply of the coins
    • Understand how you will make profit
  • Do a risk management of your capital - 
    • Do not invest all you assets in one DeFi product   
In case you are not technical and a financial guru, you can use the DeFi score to assess how secure is a DeFi ecosystem. The DeFi Score is a single, consistently comparable value for measuring platform risk, based on factors including smart contract, centralisation and financial risk. The model outputs an easy to understand 0–10 score that can be presented to users or integrated into other systems [5].

Below we can see a screenshot of the related website:



More specifically the DeFi Score is a framework for quantifying risk in permissionless lending pools (permissionless means publicly available). Originally conceived of by a team at ConsenSys, the project is now open source and open for community contribution.

Below we can see an example of the DAI product:


As we can see above the index is taking into considerations factors such as if the project is in a Bug Bounty, the liquidity index and the centralisation index. 

More specifically the index is looking to see if:
  • The project joined a Bug Bounty program such as Hackeron for security reasons
  • The project has audited its source code by an independent 3rd party
  • The project has enough liquidity for you to trade (low liquidity can allocate you assets for longer than the anticipated time)
  • The project is not centralised (e.g. the team is using a permissible Blockchains only)
  • The time index records the time in mainnet (e.g. the longer a project is running in the mainnet without an issues the more secure it is)
The formula break down can be seen below:
  • Smart Contract Risk (45%)
  • Time on Mainnet (11.25%)
  • No Critical Vulnerabilities (9%)
  • Engineering Weeks (4.5%)
  • Recent Audit or no code changes (6.75%)
  • Public Audit (6.75%)
  • Bug Bounty (6.75%)
  • Financial Risk (30%)
  • Collateral Makeup CVaR (10%)
  • Utilization Ratio (10%)
  • Absolute Liquidity (10%)
  • Centralization Risk (25%)
  • Protocol Administration (12.5%)
  • Oracles (12.5%)

Prerequisite Terminology 

Before we dive deep into DeFi trading, borrowing and lending, it would be good to explain some concepts from the traditional finance [6]:
  • Liquidity: Describes the degree to which an asset can be quickly bought or sold in the market at a price reflecting its intrinsic value. Fiat is universally considered the most liquid asset because it can most quickly and easily be converted into other assets. Low liquidity, means limited ability to convert our assets to another type of asset e.g. you entered a DeFi product using Bitcoin to borrow Ethereum and because of  the low liquidity, you know cannot withdraw your funds fast enough (e.g. before the Ethereum or Bitcoin price drops).
  • Yield: Refers to the earnings generated and realised on an investment over a particular period of time (in DeFi products, this can be 1yr or even 7days). It's expressed as a percentage based on the invested amount of digital token, current market value. 
  • Order Book: Refers to an electronic list of buy and sell orders for a specific digital token organised by price level. An order book lists the number of token being bid on or offered at each price point, or market depth.
  • Market Makers (MM): Refers to the traders make the price. aka provide liquidity to the market  e.g. buyers increase the price   
  • Market Takers (MT): Refers to the traders take the price, aka remove liquidity of the market e.g. sellers decrease the price
Now that we took care of the mandatory definitions, taken from the traditional financial system we can progress in analysing the DeFi offered products.  

DeFi Liquidity Pool A Basic Element

A liquidity pool (LPool) is a collection of funds locked in one or more Smart Contracts (SCs). LPools are used to facilitate decentralised trading, lending, and many more functions we’ll explore later [7]. LPools are the backbone of many DEXs, such as Uniswap. Users called liquidity providers (LP) add an equal value of two tokens in a pool to create a market. In exchange for providing their funds, they earn trading fees from the trades that trade in their pool, proportional to their share of the total liquidity [7].

Below we can see a schematic representation of a liquidity pool:  



Someone could say that a DEX LPool is the equivalent of an order book in a CEX. An order book in CEX is essentially, as already explained, the mapping process of a buy request, with sell request e.g. a "Market order" would have to create a sell, buy pair the fastest possible way.  This model is great for facilitating efficient exchange and allowed the creation of complex financial markets, when used on CEXs.

Below we can see a schematic representation of an order book:


DeFi ecosystem trading, however, involves executing trades on-chain, without a centralised party holding the funds. This presents a problem when it comes to order books. Each interaction with the order book requires gas fees, which makes it much more expensive to execute trades (and also time consuming). It also makes the job of MMs, extremely costly. 

Automated Market Makers (AMMs)


AMMs (AMMs is a type of LPool) are designed so that on-chain trading occurs without the need for an order book. No direct counterparty is needed to execute trades, traders can get in and out of positions on token pairs that likely would be highly illiquid on order book exchanges. In other words a CEX is using an order book to achieve an one to one mapping of the seller and the buyer (imagine an order book exchange as P2P transaction). The DEX you’re executing the trade against the liquidity in the liquidity pool as shown above.

Liquidity Pool Usage

So far, we’ve mostly discussed only one type of liquidity pools, the AMMs, which have been the most popular use of liquidity pools. But there also other type of LPools as we can see below:
  • Yield Farming or Liquidity Mining
  • Insurance LPool
  • Minting synthetic assets LPool
There are a gazillion projects out there, feel free with proper risk management to explore multiple DeFi project, for more information see here: defiprime.com  

Impermanent Loss Or Opportunity Cost 

When you deposit assets in a LPool, you become exposed to the following risks [8]:
  • The custodian SCs of your assets might get hacked e.g. hacker gain access to the LPool.
  • By providing liquidity to an AMM, you’re exposed potential impermanent loss 
  • LPool governance mistakes, might cause a loss of your assets e.g. the team losses access to the SC system etc.
Out of all the three issues mentioned, the one that you should be interested the most is the impermanent loss. Impermanent loss happens when you provide liquidity to a LPool, and the price of your deposited assets changes compared to when you deposited them. The bigger this change is, the more you are exposed to impermanent loss. In this case, the loss means less dollar value at the time of withdrawal than at the time of deposit, the volatile tokens you deposited. 

Impermanent loss according to my own opinion is the wrong name to use when referring to dollar value withdrawal loss. Impermanent loss is essentially the opportunity cost loss. That said what I mean is that when we invest in an LPool, we do that by depositing either a stablecoin and a token or two tokens and when withdraw our deposit the withdrawal ratio is fixed.

Below we can see an example that we lose money while providing liquidity:
  • The initial deposit of 100 dollars -> 50 dollars of BTC (assuming 1 BTC is 50 dollars) and 50 dollars of USDT
  • Our withdrawal, is going to be 100 dollars of 0.5 BTC and 50 USDT (assuming now that 0.5 BTC costs 50 dollars) plus the LPool fees, plus the 50 USDT. We can see that if we would have kept the BTC, now we would have gained 50 dollars more minus the LPool  fee.
Below we can see an example that we earn money while providing liquidity:
  • Initial deposit  100 dollars -> 50 dollars of BTC (assuming 1 BTC is 50 dollars) and 50 dollars of USDT
  • Withdrawal of 100 dollars after a Bitcoin price decrease by 50% -> 2 BTC that costs 50 dollars and 50 dollars of USDT, plus the LPool fees. We can see that if we would have kept the BTC, we would have lost 1 BTC minus the LPool  fee (of course this assumes that the BTC is going to go up again).


Liquidity Pools and Volatility 



Impermanent loss can be even bigger when you provide liquidity with high volatility tokens, instead of stablecoins. For example in the picture above the LP used Monero and Ethereum. Both tokens can be characterised as volatile tokens. Lets say now that one thirds of the deposit is ETH, second third is Monero and third third is dollar, when you withdraw the amount you will get back the initial dollar value, in the same ratio, meaning that you would have been better holding the token instead of using them in an LPool if the price ETH and Monero are increased. Usually what determines the price of the assets in the pool is the ratio between them in the pool.  

Below we can see an LPool that the LP provides Etheruem, Monero and USDT tokens:


Note: Before entering a pool consider carefully the potential impermanent loss and identify pools that allow you to become an LP using also stablecoins.

The Staking

 
In Proof of Stake (PoS) services, the user simply allocates a certain amount if money in s taking service for a certain time period and receives the equivalent APY states the Token allocated e.g. a TokenA staking service, requires to stake TokenA to be staked. The PoS consensus mechanism, nodes deposit tokens that are then used to validate transactions on the network. The nodes that are chosen are done so at random and are compensated in tokens in return. 

Staking is an alternative to mining on a proof-of-work network, where rather than expending computational energy, they give up the opportunity cost of capital. There is also risk of incorrectly validating transactions which can result in stake being slashed.  Staking requires a certain level of technical expertise, so individuals who want to earn inflationary rewards can delegate their tokens to a staking-as-a-service platform who will retain a portion of tokens earned [9]. 

Some PoS networks allow the holders of the staked coins to participate in major governance decisions of the network through a voting process. Generally speaking, the more coins that are staked, the more power this individual has on the network. 

Uniswap v3


There are DEXes and there are DEXes, or there is only one DEX or is this maybe a unicorn? Yes, there is only one DEX that we should be looking at and is Uniswap v3. Uniswap v1 was launched in November 2018 as a proof of concept for the 1st ever AMM. On May 2020, Uniswap v2 introduced new features and optimizations, setting the stage for exponential growth in AMM adoption. Less than one year since its launch, v2 has facilitated over $135bn in trading volume, ranking as one of the largest cryptocurrency spot exchanges in the world.

Uniswap is targeting to launch a Layer1 Ethereum mainnet launch on May 5, with a Layer2 (a layer on top of ETH mainet) deployment on Optimism set to follow shortly after.

Uniswap v3 introduces [10]:
  • Concentrated liquidity, giving individual LPs granular control over what price ranges their capital is allocated to. Individual positions are aggregated together into a single pool, forming one combined curve for users to trade against
  • Multiple fee tiers , allowing LPs to be appropriately compensated for taking on varying degrees of risk

Conclusion 

Impermanent loss is one of the fundamental concepts that anyone who wants to provide liquidity to AMMs should understand. In short, if the price of the deposited assets changes since the deposit, the LP may be exposed to impermanent loss. Think carefully before becoming an LP [8]. 

References:


Saturday, 20 March 2021

Market Outlook - 20/03/2021

Introduction

Bitcoin has had a very strong week coming out of its second major bull market correction. BTC has exceeded $60k, going for a new ATH after climbing consistently over the past week. On-chain metrics continue to show favourable conditions as the BTC supply remains restricted. But we are starting to see some warning signs for the bull run. Nothing imminent or that you should act on immediately, but some things we should pay attention to. The amount of whales holding Bitcoin and the Pi Cycle Top indicator are flashing interesting data.

Below we can see, in the day chart, that two oscillators show trend reversal (MACD and RSI show tend change): 



Below we can see, in the weekly chart, that only one oscillators trend reversal (RSI shows tend change): 



Below we can see, in the monthly chart, that only no oscillators show trend reversal: 


But as always, we should be fast to interpret data, but slow to act on it. When the bear market hits, it won’t be one gigantic drop to the bottom. Bitcoin will continue to fight its way back up between support and resistance giving you plenty of time to exit the market. Basically, no one ever picks the exact top so the important thing is to make sure you are always ready to take profits if the market does drop.

Below we can see the all time BTC NUPL chart:


Below we can see the 2 week BTC NUPL chart:


Note: Nothing to worry about BTC yet.

Below we can see the 2 week ETH NUPL chart:


Note: Nothing to worry about ETH yet.

Below we can see the all time BTC for LTH NUPL chart:


Note: Long Term Holder NUPL (LTH-NUPL) is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss that takes into account only UTXOs with a lifespan of at least 155 days and serves as an indicator to assess the behaviour of long term investors. I think that the chart above shows that we should be little worried about the tendency of the BTC movements.

Below we can see the all time BTC for STH NUPL chart:


BTC Net Transfer Volume from/to Exchanges - All Exchanges:



Note:  The difference of in volume flowing into exchanges and out of exchanges, i.e. the net flow of coins into/out of exchanges. Note that exchange metrics are based on our labeled data of exchange addresses that we constantly keep updating, as well as data science techniques and statistical information that changes over time. Therefore these metrics are mutable – the data is stable, but especially most recent data points are subject to slight fluctuations as time progresses. I think that for the immediate future all is good based on the net-flow.

BTC Net Transfer Volume from/to Exchanges 7 day - All Exchanges:


The BTC reserve remains low, so good news:


The ETH reserve remains steadily low, so good news:


Conclusion

In the long run we are going to be millionaires, in the short run we have to be careful. The day chart of BTC has already to oscillators (the RSI and MACD), showing a downward trend reversal. Due to the fact that the this is a day chart, adds significance to the trend oscillators (it means, that it looks like a sign stronger than the hourly charts). Nonetheless in the monthly chart, there is no sign of trend reversal yet.     




The Cardano Technology

 Introduction 



This article my beloved Crypto peasants is going to do a deep dive to Cardano impressive technology, a true ETH killer. Cardano according to my insanely sophisticated view and understanding is here to stay and in the long run, take over Eth. 



Cardano is the blockchain platform for true change makers, innovators, and visionaries, with the tools and technologies required to create possibility for the many, as well as the few, and bring about positive global change.




For those who’d like to learn a little more about Cardano prior to reading this report, here are some primary links:


Note: This article might get updated, so stay tuned, and is meant to provide a holistic overview of Cardano.

Fundamental Analysis/ Metrics


Below we can see some fundamental analysis basic metrics:
 
Name: Cardano

Ticker: ADA

Token Type:  Run on its own chain

Validator Method: PoS

Platform:  Cardano

Category: Large cap

Transactions Per Second: 1000 TPS

Consensus Mechanism:  PoS

Sector (Use cases): N/A 

Exchanges:  See Link

Head Quarters (HQ):  Switzerland 

Number of employees:  49 (From Linkedin Insights)

Two year growth: 145% (From Linkedin Insights)

Company year founded:  2016

Crypto currency use case: N/A the Cardano foundation does not specialise in a specific use case. since this is a Smart Contract chain.

The Cardano cryptocurrency is managed by the Cardano foundation and its HQ is in Switzerland (a decent place for a tech startup). The most impressive part is that Cardano has an employee growth , based on the Linkedin Insights, of 145%. The company behind Cardano is Input Output (IOHK) a research and development company in the field of cryptography and distributed systems. Since IOHK was founded in 2014 it has been involved blockchain research, building a global team of cryptographers and researchers (a headcount of 216 employees).  

Below we can see the headcount distribution growth per function (in Cardano foundation): 



The company employee ratio, based on speciality seems to be well balanced (in Cardano foundation):


As shown above the foundation does have personnel for Marketing and Community Social Services. The foundation seems to know very well how to attract  a big user space (its related personnel for this purpose is 58%). 


Cardano Foundation Restructure


The team initially included three conglomerates which held 5.18 billion ADA between them. Emurgo company which aimed to develop, support, and incubate commercial ventures; and Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), founded in 2015 by Charles Hoskinson and Jeremy Wood. IOHK also works on Ethereum Classic development and focuses on research and development in cryptography and distributed systems.

In October 2018, IOHK released a detailed blog post explaining several issues IOHK and Emurgo have had with the Cardano Foundation, including lack of strategic vision or plan, lack of transparency regarding operations, and misrepresentation of the Cardano trademark. Several members of the Cardano Foundation have since been replaced after restructuring in December 2018 [5].


Launch Overview


Cardano was conceptualised back on 2016 by Charles Hoskinson as a come back for the Ethereum hard fork due to the DAO hack, a decentralised blockchain and cryptocurrency project based on peer-reviewed research using the Haskell coding language. The story began in 2015, with a vision of addressing the three strategic challenges facing all blockchain networks: scalability, interoperability, and sustainability. Cardano ICO was conducted 2 Jan 2018. At the $ 1.49 ATH price on 27 Feb 2021 investors were able to sell this position with 74.48x ROI in USD [4].

Circulating Supply: 31,948,309,441 (71%)

Max Supply: 45,000,000,000 (This could change in the future)

Market Cap Dominance: 2.18%

Market Cap: $40,603,302,243

ATH: 1.49 (27 Feb 2021)


Cardano Partnerships 


The Cardano Foundation has the core responsibilities of helping, overseeing, and supervising the development of Cardano and its blockchain ecosystem. 

The following partnerships were achieved, with this goal in mind [7]:  
  • IBM Research on January 17, 2020
  • PwC on January 27, 2020
  • New Balance on September 30, 2019 
  • COTI Network on October 31, 2019
  • SIRIN LABS on February 14, 2018
  • Ellipal Hardware on July 3, 2019
  • Konfidio on August 15, 2019
  • Algoz on June 26, 2019
  • Metaps Plus on May 10, 2018
  • Z/Yen Group on December 5, 2017
  • Priviledge on January 24, 2020
  • ScanTrust on January 21, 2020
  • Runtime Verification on December 18, 2017
  • South Korea Government-Approved Trade Associations on August 20, 2019
  • Ethiopian Government on April 30, 2019
  • Georgian Government on June 17, 2019
  • Edinburgh University on February 24, 2017


Cardano Social Media Presence 


Below we can see the most popular communication channels for learning more about Cardano:

Twitter followers: 318.5K Followers

Telegram (Announcements): 50 359 members

Telegram (Community): 37894 members (4463 online)

Cardano Forum: Reasonable Active


The Telegram community is active and healthy (e.g. members do not exchange cooking recipes etc.). Cardano has multiple Telegram channels.

Cardano Roadmap


The Cardano roadmap is a summary of Cardano development, which has been organized into five eras [3]: 
  1. Byron - 
    • Introduced the Ouroboros staking protocol.
  2. Shelley -
    • Introduced delegation and incentives scheme.
  3. Goguen - 
    • Introduced Marlowe and Plutus (a high-level, domain-specific languages for businesses), along with fungible and non-fungible tokens.
  4. Basho - 
    • Introduced parallel accounting styles(aka. sidechains)
  5. Voltaire -
    • Introduced treasury systems (aka. DeFi like functionality)
Each era is centred around a set of functionalities that will be delivered across multiple code releases. While the eras of Cardano will be delivered sequentially, the work for each era happens in parallel, with research, prototyping, and development often in progress all at once across the different development streams [3].

For more information see the following video:



Cardano Wallet 


Cardano has released two wallets Yoroi and Daedalus. Daedalus is an open source wallet for ADA, and supports most major desktop operating systems such as Windows, macOS, and Linux. Daedalus is built with web technologies on top of Electron. 

It is also important to mention that DAEDALUS [13]:
  • Is a full node wallet. This means that Daedalus downloads a full copy of the Cardano blockchain and independently validates every transaction in its history. 
  • Also allows theme customisation for the user.
  • Has newsfeed that delivers news to Daedalus users directly via the user interface.
Yoroi is a light wallet for Cardano, developed by EMURGO [12]. Yoroi is a Firefox, Chrome and Edge Browser extension. But also come as an Android and IPhone client. In the Google Play Store Yoroi has a 4.6 out of 5 rate and 100,000+ installs. Also the IPhone version has 4.7 out of 5 rate in the Apple Store and 217 Ratings.

Cardano User Structure


Typical Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have different types of user base. For example Bitcoin has the developers maintaining the Bitcoin network, the miners, securing the network and the users buying Bitcoin (e.g. supporting the financial ecosystem etc.). Same think happens with Ethereum, but slightly different, because the Ethereum has two type of developers those who maintain and improve the network, just like Bitcoin and those who maintain and create Smart Contracts, increasing the Ethereum use cases. Cardano by adding the Goguen network is increasing the ecosystem complexity and create five type of users, the developers maintaining the network, the developers writing smart contracts, the subject matter experts (that do not know how to code), the miners securing the network (through staking) and the users buying the token.



Below we can see the evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem:


     


Cardano Staking


ADA held on the Cardano network represents a stake in the network, with the size of the stake proportional to the amount of ADA held. The ability to delegate or pledge a stake is fundamental to how Cardano works [1]. In Cardano we can run private or public staking pools, and a calculator is provided to assess the rewards.

Below we can see a screenshot from the Cardano calculator:


Below we can see how the staking mechanism rewards the stakers: 




Cardano Architecture 


This section describes a high-level architecture of Cardano. It provides details on the core components and their interactions, and briefly discusses Cardano’s eras and implementations. The current implementation of Cardano is modular. 

It includes the following components (different deployment use cases will use different combinations of components):
  • Node
  • Command line interface (CLI)
  • Daedalus wallet
  • Cardano db-sync
  • GraphQL API server (Apollo)
  • REST API components
  • SMASH server
Below we can see how the different components are connected:
 



Note: For more information on the Cardano documentation, refer to the relevant links [1]. 

Cardano Repository/Code Assessment 



The Cardano repository is frequently updated with excellent documentation. The code looks clean (code coding style), with self explanatory comments. The programming language used to develop the technology is Haskell (Haskell is the main programming language , not the only one). Haskell is considered to be an advanced, purely functional programming language, designed with emphasis on fault tolerance. In layman's terms Haskell allows for the code to be easily verified, and become less error-prone [10]. 

Note: Also Haskell cannot easily be used to for large scale programming and the talent pool is restricted, becoming a problem in the long run for large scale developer adaptation. It is also understood that this type of programming language will attract people from the academia (e.g. universities, such as Phd students and researchers) and not the commercial market, that is adopted into solving real world problems. 

Cardano Security Considerations



Cardano has undergone an independent source code audit (of Phase 1 that includes the Byron epoch) by a respected company named Root9B. The IOHK team wanted to reassure users that Cardano is a secure protocol [8].  Root9B was founded in 2011 as Root9B Technologies, the company touted itself as an IT security training firm staffed by an impressive list of ex-military leaders with many years of cybersecurity experience at the DoD and NSA.  But later on, the company, due to bad marketing, received some really negative publicity about, potentially manipulating its own stocks and that led to the company closing  [9]. 

The output of the reports can be found here: github.com. The most important finding was Insecure Genesis Block Generation (which is related with the randomness of the block generation), the issues identified were remediated and verification document was produced by Root9B to confirm that.

Below we can see the report extract about the single Critical vulnerability identified:


Note: It does worth mentioning that there were also identified some other interesting such potential Denial of Service attack etc.

At this point it should be mention that from a quick view in the Cardano repository, it seems that the Cardano team does take into consideration, newly identified security vulnerabilities as the development is progressing.

The screenshot below shows that [11]:


   

Conclusion


Finally after all this analysis the time has come to say my opinion on what is the verdict outcome. Below you can see the pros and cons based on the information collected:

PROS:


Here are my pros about Cardano:
  • As far as their business/social presence is concerned from me gets an 9 out of 10. Well designed site, clear businesses goals, strong community, good partnerships.
  • As far our their technology is concerned from me gets a 9 out of 10. The technologies are carefully chosen and well designed.  
  • As far as the token economics is concerned I will give it a 7 out of 10. The coin inflation is good and incentives staking to secure the network.
  • The Cardano team has a strong academic background and might make the Cardano goals non realistic.
Very well designed stacking mechanism and decent reward systems, this is a 9 out of 10 staking technology.

CONS:

Here are my cons about Cardano:
  • Cardano is making use of Haskell, and because of that, the developer adaptation is going to be difficult. 
  • Cardano has prolonged the mainnet release for the sake of quality too long (or maybe not).
Total score is: 8 out of 10 for long term investment and a 7 out of 10 for short term.


References:

























Market outlook 04-11-2021

 Bitcoin Status The Bitcoin volume is not here yet, it seems that the retails is not "lured" yet in to the planned big "pump ...